NSKA

2023 NWA Road Runner Preview

Back on the road again for the 2023 NSKA NWA ZPro Road Runner event. This event gives anglers the opportunity to fish the waters they feel the most comfortable on, close to home, or where they have the most confidence they can catch a limit. What is in store for the 2023 edition – now requiring a 10-fish limit – and where will the winning totals come from?

Last year in the road runner preview, we pretty much predicted where the winning total and the pool of waters where the top limits would come from. This time around it’s going to be a bit more of a mystery and a LOT more wide open. With the dramatic change to a 10 fish limit, the playing field between lakes has been leveled and there are many options.

To win the title this year, an angler will need to turn in a limit of 10 fish for the longest total. There are two recipies for a winning total thanks to the change. Two or three big fish at the top along with bass of descending size to smaller 13s or 14s at the bottom can make up a winning total, however, what may be more likely is a total of 10 fish ranging from 15-17s across the board. So where can you find a limit for either of those recipes?

Clues from AGFC Data

Everyone has their own experiences and opinions on the quality of fishing at area lakes and waterways. That said, let’s look at some data to see what the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission says from their fisheries management studies.

Two key measures are what we’re most interested in for this preview:

  • CPUE – Cost Per Unit Effort measures the abundance of a particular species in a body of water. (higher is better)
  • PSD – Proportional Stock Density is a ratio (expressed as percentage) between the number of quality-sized individuals or larger individuals and stock-sized individual fish. (higher is better)

In the chart below, we see the ratios for CPUE and PSD for the bodies of water in bounds and available data for Black Bass, averaged for the past 10 years. (data available only on these lakes)

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So what does all this mean? For the lakes shown here, it indicates that there is a higher density of Black Bass at Elmdale and Crystal than the others. Note the low CPUE for Beaver Lake, but keep in mind this is only for Black Bass and does not include Spotted Bass or Smallmouth. So the aggregate CPUE for Beaver in total is much higher than shown here. According to the PSD ratio, there are more quality fish (proportionately) as a share of the population at Crystal, Lincoln, and Beaver. Would have to believe that Siloam City Lake would be very similar to Lincoln and Bob Kidd numbers if we had the data – lower fish population fish density, but larger size penetration.

So what does THAT all that mean?? In short, Elmdale and Crystal have more total bass density and should be easier to catch a limit than the others. Elmdale has the highest expected catch rate, but you may need to catch more than 10 to find the right quality – but there are definitely bigs there. Crystal may be the most balanced, with a surprising mix of number of fish with some decent quality available. However, the biggest number of quality bass and chances to catch larger fish seem to exist at Lincoln, Bobb Kidd, and Beaver Lake, but the quantity of fish makes this very challenging and can burn you. That’s the very scary thing, when’s the last time you caught ten fish (or even close) at Lincoln or Siloam or Bob Kidd in one trip?? Along with the pressure of other anglers at the same time? Six anglers on one small lake try to catch 60 fish?! That’s the risk.

The dark horse candidate for the best combination of ability to catch a limit and possibly win the whole thing could be Table Rock. It has everything needed, abundant fish population, large fish, and familiarity for a lot of anglers. Wish we had CPUE and PSD for it – but I couldn’t locate this data.

The hard numbers above of course do not include key locations such as Siloam City Lake, Lake Sequoya, Table Rock, Atalanta, Lake Wedington, Lake Fayetteville, and the main rivers (Kings, Elk, Sugar, War Eagle, and Illinois). The rivers likely have the highest average catch rate by far, but we don’t have this hard data. The right pool on a river can hold a limit in one spot. It is no secret that Beaver and Table Rock are serious contenders, and the ten fish limit immediately makes the rivers a major threat.

Big Fish Totals – Last Few Years

As we look back at NSKA NWA tournaments and where the largest limits were produced, there are some clear trends regarding those in the boundaries. The most productive big 5-fish limit lakes in bounds have been Siloam City Lake (4), Lincoln Lake (4), Table Rock (3), and Beaver Lake (3). How will they fare when 10 are required?

Last year Lincoln Lake bounced back after being completely irrelevant for a few years, and Siloam City Lake once again (sixth time in the past seven RRs) finished in the top three.

Winning Road Runner Locations over the past seven years:

  • 2016 – Crystal Lake
  • 2017 – Elk River (Rivers only RR)
  • 2017 – Siloam City Lake
  • 2018 – Siloam City Lake
  • 2019 – Siloam City Lake
  • 2020 – Lake X (not identified publicly)
  • 2021 – Siloam City Lake
  • 2022 – Lincoln Lake

What’s Going to Happen?

Due to the ten fish limit, this is new territory for the road runner, but I do think the numbers and history for road runners and MLF-style events lay out the most likely scenarios:

  • It will take 160+ to win. However, I think predictions of 170+ are too much. Sweet spot for a victory will be between 162-168 inches.
  • Likely a huge drop-off between 1st and 5th place. I’d estimate 5th place to be around 145-147 inches.
  • Tenth place will be in the 133-140 range as people start stacking up with tightly bunched totals in the 130s and 120s.
  • A LOT of people who go to Lincoln, Siloam, or Bobb Kidd will struggle to catch a limit. They are fishing very tough right now.
  • Rivers will be the ticket to a LOT of limits, and likely some Top-10 finishes.

The Last Word

Many people hate road runners because of the stress of trying to decide where to go. But they are great for giving options and involving all the area fisheries. If you don’t know where to go, simply choose where you want to spend the day and where you’ll enjoy fishing. This thing is wide open. Can’t go wrong with that. Good luck!